La Salle Debain

My fellow Republicans and I got a nice early Diwali present on Tuesday. ~65 seats in the House ~6 in the senate, ~18 governorships and control of ~20 state legislatures. (Some races haven't been formally called yet.) A few disappointments though. no majority in the Senate and Harry Reid and Barney Frank were not defeated. Still overall its an election to celebrate. Here are a few thoughts.

The Election System Is An Embarassment

Once again there are several races where the outcome is in doubt because of technical problems with voting. Whatever politics we have, can we agree that it is damn stupid that we still can't get something as simple as counting ballots right?

Prediction: The 2012 Republican presidential candidate will come from the Tea Party.

While I may be a Republican, I am also a Cosmopolitan East Coast Elitist so the Tea Party didn't move me much. There were a couple of cases (NY and DE atleast) where their candidates were subpar and cost us victory but the best of the new Republicans also came out of this movement. I would rather vote for one of them than Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Gingrich etc. (With the exception of Sarah Palin who is just too polarizing I'm afraid.) The Tea Party itself will subside in a few years as all populist movements do. (Ask the Hope'n'changers.)

Young People Are Dumb

Part of leftist mythology is the idea that one day "the kids" are going to rise up against the mean old corporate overlords. It ain't going to happen. There was a huge upsurge in first time voters in 2008 but that was because Obama was a novelty act not because they had suddenly discovered the merits of Keynesianism. Now Obama is old and busted so they won't vote anymore. (Not until they have kids and a mortgage sometime in the future.) They'll spend time make cool ironic signs for the Rally to Promote Comedy Central but even the prospect of legalizing pot won't get them to the polling booths in sufficient numbers to defeat the oldies. Why? Because young people are dumb.

Prediction: War With Iran

If you're President Obama what do you do now? Bipartisanship? Yeah right. Look at what happened to Rep. Cao of Louisiana, the only Republican to vote for Obamacare and one of only two GOP congressmen to lose on Tuesday. Obama actively campaigned for his challenger. Any of the new Republicans who try and compromise with the President will end up under the bus sooner or later as they well know.

The President could go full retard with the socialism (progressivism, liberalism whatever. It's all the same.) All his initiatives will be shot down but he can claim to be a martyr to the party of No. (Who will be joined in the Senate by Lieberman and whatever centrist Democrats who are up for reelection in 2012.) But this seems to be the path to a one-term presidency to me. Maybe that's what he wants. He could retire comfortably to the deanship of some Ivy League law school and make a lucrative killing on the rubber chicken circuit.

But lets assume he wants to get back in the White House in 2012. One way to get back in touch with the voters is to start getting serious about foreign policy which has either been a joke (Remember the reset button?) a travesty or just copied from the Bush administration. In particular the Obama administration has completely failed in stopping Iran from gaining nuclear technology, sponsoring terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon, and oppressing its own people. War with Iran would enhance his standing with Conservatives (hey it works for me!) most liberals would go along with it and the extreme Code Pink type loonies can safely be ignored. I say it happens before November 2012.